Saturday, December 6, 2014

US sanction move against Israel????

According to the FreeBeacon, the Obama Administration is currently weighing options of sanction on Israel for continued settlement building.
This must be happening almost at the same time as two other significant incidences
  1. US congress passed a bill declaring Israel as US strategic partner. This is actually a major leap from previous status as a major non-NATO ally. The bill is currently on the president's desk awaiting his signature.
  2. The forth coming Israel election tentatively on March 17, 2015.
Currently, while I personally consider this as an Obama Administration's move to sway Israeli voters away from the right which recent polls have suggested is expected to win and implicitly influence the Israeli electoral process, the possibility of a US sanction on Israel while at the same time, pressuring congress to refrain from additional sanction on Iran will have ripple effects across the world.


  • Pandemonium as to what the US foreign policy now looks like. It looks like the Obama Administration is adding a "pivot to Iran" policy to its "pivot-to-Asia" one.
  • US congress will be confused on how to combine a working with Israel as a strategic partner with a sanctioned republic.
  • A number of US state governments have relationship with Israeli companies in fields like education, energy, water, agriculture and technology. There would there be fear on how jeopardized the ties could be as a direct or indirect effect of sanctions.
  • BDS would grow loudest. We then expect to see more muslim or Arab voices in support of the administration.
  • The US Jewish community who have on both elections supported Obama will be obviously disappointed and may suffer a rise in anti-semitic attacks like in Europe.
  • The Obama administration will then try to convince Sunni arabs that this is not a pivot-to-Iran move so that they could keep co-operating with his war on ISIL.

Palestine and the Arab League

  • President Abbas as long being trying to seek a UN resolution to set a strict timeline for Israel in areas captured during the 1967 war. This is the best time for him to push for a resolution at the UN security council. He would believe that the US will now vote in favour.
  • Sunni arab state will be mostly adversely affected by such a US move. They will perceive a sanction on Israel and relieved sanction on Iran and the perfect signal of the pivot to Iran. This would affect Obama war on ISIL.
  • Sunni Arabs states may be moved to more covertly co-operate with on any possible Israeli attack on Iran should she decide to do so unilaterally.
  • President Abbas will make more visits to the Whitehouse and seek further moves from Obama as he will believe that he has only 2 more years to get such favourable moves.
  • Abbas may go further to seeking US troops and not IDF along the Jordan valley in any negotiation with Israel.


  • Arab militant groups have always attributed Israel's military superiority to US support for Israel. With sanctions, they will consider that superiority gone. We would see a more volatile scenario with threats of war and rocket fire from Hamas/Hezbollah.
  • A chance exist for another bloody intifada or Gaza war.


  • The EU sentiment is almost in full swing. Most EU countries will see the reaction from the Obama administration as a confirmation of righteousness on their part.
  • EU nations will make more moves to recognize Palestine as a state and will try to impose a map for such a state.
  • BDS and more anti-semitic attack will rise.
  • Some EU nations will even follow US in sanctioning Israel economically.
  • However some EU countries will likely go against US sanction moves and increase co-operation with Israel. This is because they will consider a parallel Russian and Israeli sanction as a paradox.


  • With an increase Iranian support for Hezbollah, Iran will seek to further establish itself as the biggest player in the middle east.
  • Iran will increase its anti-Israeli rhetorics but tone down on the US version of it.
  • Iran will seek to be involve in the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and will advocate more sanctions on Israel worldwide just as Benjamin Netanyahu advocated more sanctions on Iran on the nuclear issues.


  • President Sisi of Egypt has proven to be able to weather a stormy relationship with US but courting another one with Russia. He will portray himself more as model in relations with Israel.
  • Egypt will certainly seek to play more active role in any future Israel-Palestinian or Hamas negotiation as they would see themselves as an extra Israeli lifeline.


  • Perhaps of all involved, Russia has more to gain from a US sanction on Israel than any other country in the world.
  • Russia has seen increased trade with Israel in agriculture due to EU sanctions on Russia. Perhaps Russia will want to see more trade this time.
  • I see Putin make a visit to Israel months into the sanctions as a message to the US.
  • Russia will like to have military co-operation with Israel given that Israel has more access to US military technology than most other allies in the world.


  • The most obvious effect of this news or its possibility will be the forth-coming Israeli elections. It will be a campaign position. To the right, parties will emphasize Israeli more-dependence on herself and less on the US. To the left, parties will stress how Netanyahu has destroyed Israel's security more than any other Israeli government in history.
  • I expect the election outcome to be influenced by this more than any other factor.
  • Should a rightist coalition/government come into power, 
    • expect Jewish state bill
    • Israeli sovereignty over all Jerusalem
    • a war or two with Hamas/Hezbollah.
    • a possible Iranian war... which its result will be unthinkable.
    • more Israeli co-operation with US state governments 
    • Israeli co-operation with China and Russia.
    • Israeli stalling negotiations with Palestinians to wait out the Obama government.
  • Should a centrist coalition come into power
    • more emphasis on Palestinian negotiation which will still not be fruitful.
    • more John Kerry visits to Israel with no tangible outcome.
    • US-Israel effort to mend an openly-broken relations.


The US government sincerely is more aware than I on what and which of these predictions are more likely and I will therefore consider them either more tactical or foolish to have allow these thoughts leave the room. They can still control all the variables involved but pushing ahead or creating more news headlines along this line will introduce much more variables they certainly cannot control one of which being a message to all current US allies that the US government and most certainly the one led by Barack Obama cannot and should not be trusted.