Saturday, December 6, 2014

US sanction move against Israel????

According to the FreeBeacon, the Obama Administration is currently weighing options of sanction on Israel for continued settlement building.
This must be happening almost at the same time as two other significant incidences
  1. US congress passed a bill declaring Israel as US strategic partner. This is actually a major leap from previous status as a major non-NATO ally. The bill is currently on the president's desk awaiting his signature.
  2. The forth coming Israel election tentatively on March 17, 2015.
Currently, while I personally consider this as an Obama Administration's move to sway Israeli voters away from the right which recent polls have suggested is expected to win and implicitly influence the Israeli electoral process, the possibility of a US sanction on Israel while at the same time, pressuring congress to refrain from additional sanction on Iran will have ripple effects across the world.


  • Pandemonium as to what the US foreign policy now looks like. It looks like the Obama Administration is adding a "pivot to Iran" policy to its "pivot-to-Asia" one.
  • US congress will be confused on how to combine a working with Israel as a strategic partner with a sanctioned republic.
  • A number of US state governments have relationship with Israeli companies in fields like education, energy, water, agriculture and technology. There would there be fear on how jeopardized the ties could be as a direct or indirect effect of sanctions.
  • BDS would grow loudest. We then expect to see more muslim or Arab voices in support of the administration.
  • The US Jewish community who have on both elections supported Obama will be obviously disappointed and may suffer a rise in anti-semitic attacks like in Europe.
  • The Obama administration will then try to convince Sunni arabs that this is not a pivot-to-Iran move so that they could keep co-operating with his war on ISIL.

Palestine and the Arab League

  • President Abbas as long being trying to seek a UN resolution to set a strict timeline for Israel in areas captured during the 1967 war. This is the best time for him to push for a resolution at the UN security council. He would believe that the US will now vote in favour.
  • Sunni arab state will be mostly adversely affected by such a US move. They will perceive a sanction on Israel and relieved sanction on Iran and the perfect signal of the pivot to Iran. This would affect Obama war on ISIL.
  • Sunni Arabs states may be moved to more covertly co-operate with on any possible Israeli attack on Iran should she decide to do so unilaterally.
  • President Abbas will make more visits to the Whitehouse and seek further moves from Obama as he will believe that he has only 2 more years to get such favourable moves.
  • Abbas may go further to seeking US troops and not IDF along the Jordan valley in any negotiation with Israel.


  • Arab militant groups have always attributed Israel's military superiority to US support for Israel. With sanctions, they will consider that superiority gone. We would see a more volatile scenario with threats of war and rocket fire from Hamas/Hezbollah.
  • A chance exist for another bloody intifada or Gaza war.


  • The EU sentiment is almost in full swing. Most EU countries will see the reaction from the Obama administration as a confirmation of righteousness on their part.
  • EU nations will make more moves to recognize Palestine as a state and will try to impose a map for such a state.
  • BDS and more anti-semitic attack will rise.
  • Some EU nations will even follow US in sanctioning Israel economically.
  • However some EU countries will likely go against US sanction moves and increase co-operation with Israel. This is because they will consider a parallel Russian and Israeli sanction as a paradox.


  • With an increase Iranian support for Hezbollah, Iran will seek to further establish itself as the biggest player in the middle east.
  • Iran will increase its anti-Israeli rhetorics but tone down on the US version of it.
  • Iran will seek to be involve in the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and will advocate more sanctions on Israel worldwide just as Benjamin Netanyahu advocated more sanctions on Iran on the nuclear issues.


  • President Sisi of Egypt has proven to be able to weather a stormy relationship with US but courting another one with Russia. He will portray himself more as model in relations with Israel.
  • Egypt will certainly seek to play more active role in any future Israel-Palestinian or Hamas negotiation as they would see themselves as an extra Israeli lifeline.


  • Perhaps of all involved, Russia has more to gain from a US sanction on Israel than any other country in the world.
  • Russia has seen increased trade with Israel in agriculture due to EU sanctions on Russia. Perhaps Russia will want to see more trade this time.
  • I see Putin make a visit to Israel months into the sanctions as a message to the US.
  • Russia will like to have military co-operation with Israel given that Israel has more access to US military technology than most other allies in the world.


  • The most obvious effect of this news or its possibility will be the forth-coming Israeli elections. It will be a campaign position. To the right, parties will emphasize Israeli more-dependence on herself and less on the US. To the left, parties will stress how Netanyahu has destroyed Israel's security more than any other Israeli government in history.
  • I expect the election outcome to be influenced by this more than any other factor.
  • Should a rightist coalition/government come into power, 
    • expect Jewish state bill
    • Israeli sovereignty over all Jerusalem
    • a war or two with Hamas/Hezbollah.
    • a possible Iranian war... which its result will be unthinkable.
    • more Israeli co-operation with US state governments 
    • Israeli co-operation with China and Russia.
    • Israeli stalling negotiations with Palestinians to wait out the Obama government.
  • Should a centrist coalition come into power
    • more emphasis on Palestinian negotiation which will still not be fruitful.
    • more John Kerry visits to Israel with no tangible outcome.
    • US-Israel effort to mend an openly-broken relations.


The US government sincerely is more aware than I on what and which of these predictions are more likely and I will therefore consider them either more tactical or foolish to have allow these thoughts leave the room. They can still control all the variables involved but pushing ahead or creating more news headlines along this line will introduce much more variables they certainly cannot control one of which being a message to all current US allies that the US government and most certainly the one led by Barack Obama cannot and should not be trusted.

Friday, November 28, 2014

Justice for Michael Brown??

"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character."    - Martin Luther King Jr.

Above are the words of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., still revered, still heard, still remembered. But how soon tides have turned and the world right now and more so the main stream media do the opposite of what they claim to stand for.

Justice for Michael Brown - the violence, protest and even looting in the name of seeking

Justice for the killing of Michael Brown no longer looks like a pursuit of Justice. Rather it should be plainly called a pursuit of arrest and charging of officer Wilson. 
Having made all evidence public, the pursuit of justice should have been more peaceful, passionate and yet calculated. Now the message of seeking justice appears in two folds
  1. Down with the US justice system
  2. Arrest, Charge and ultimately convict officer Darren Wilson.
Anything outside these two goal does not seem to meet the definition of Justice for the protesters.

Hands Up, Don't Shoot - a new cliche propagated by protesters that is supposed to represent Michael's attitude minutes before his demise. While all evidence suggest that this is not the case, world media and sympathizers still feel they can suppress evidence by protest. In very clear terms, Michael did not humble himself before a law enforcer. If he did, we will never have heard about him. See video here

Gentle Giant - These are the two words many of his family and friends used to described him. He was one

sort of a hero. A man will all should admire and seek to be like. But not long afterwards, the video of his theft and assault surfaced. And while people may decry this as character assassination, they cannot refute that it happened, I am compelled to want to ask if it was the same thing he was trying on a law enforcer.

Lesley McSpadden in a fight? Yes... something world press will not like us to talk about. But the mother of the victim got in a fight over sales of what? Sales of "Justice for Michael Brown" t-shirts. I think we should talk less about her as she is grieving but just before taking her case to the UN, this woman actually had the strength to fight ... her ex-mother-in-law and make away with almost $2,000 worth of cash and merchandise.... And in public? And now, she could be charged with felony armed robbery. See the story according to New York Daily News

Victim mentality - people are falling for the same trick that works mostly in the 21st century. If you can paint yourself however as the victim, you can get away with almost anything. The general picture on this saga is that the cop was the aggressor and Michael was the victim. Any counter evidence seems not welcome anymore.

US in the spotlight - having championed civil and human right around the world for decades, the US is coming scrutiny regardless of the facts. Many foreign-sponsored press houses and even US local media houses are ready and eager to paint it bad anyway. Foreign ministry of countries like Russia, Egypt, Iran and even North Korea have issued statement directly at the US. Sincerely, I think they want to see more on the streets of the US.

Geo-political effects: The more recent attempt to link happenings in Ferguson to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been taken up by Arab-sponsored media and more so the BDS movement. The intention is to paint the Palestinians as being the in the positions as the black community in Ferguson (victim mentality) in a bid to shore up support for their resistance against Israel. Media houses like Qatari-sponsored Al Jazeera and their America studio, Iranian-sponsored Press TV and Kremlin-sponsored RT amongs others have highlighted some information that the Israeli military trained the Ferguson police, in other words, the Ferguson community is under occupation just as Palestinians say they are under occupation.

If the people of Ferguson want to have peace, they should rather insist on debates and present counter evidence to support their claim. Their witness must grow from the kind of people they always brought on air who gave not just conflicting accounts but have themselves proved incredible, example of which is Dorian Johnson. I believe they would have justice this way rather than cry justice on the basis of race and discrimination. Many whites have been killed by black shooting and none of such was attributed to race. It should be common sense that the black see things the same way.

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Amnesty International : A Nigerian perspective

According to Wikipedia, Amnesty International (commonly known as Amnesty and AI) is a non-governmental organisation focused on human rights with over 3 million members and supporters around the world. The stated objective of the organisation is "to conduct research and generate action to prevent and end grave abuses of human rights, and to demand justice for those whose rights have been violated." source
And while AI has a long history, its activity over the years has become a source of worry. 

Over the past 3 years, an unprecedented wave of suicide bombing and terrorist has plagued the northern Nigeria and thousands of lives have been lost of the Boko Haram insurgency. There has been an ever-rising wave of protest nation-wide for the government to do enough to stop it even more so since the kidnap of the school girls in chibok, Bornu state.

All this while, AI have never spoken of, condemned or even show concern for the people dying in the country. Alternatively, they have been instinctively quick to condemn the Nigerian soldiers twice in 3 years for what they call war crimes.

While I condemn the gruesome manner of killing by anybody and believe the soldiers in reported videos be withdrawn, AI condemns always only in one direction. They always try to convince a gullible world that they have done an investigation and are confident of what they say. I ask, "why not investigate when Boko Haram members whose heads are always covered with scarf when they kill people gruesomely". 

Their latest condemnation and recommendation of the Nigerian army for trials on war crimes does not only say how disconnected they are with the Nigerian public but that they are now considered as one "official diplomatic front for terrorism" around the world. Why?

  1. they would never join in the fight against terrorism anywhere in the world.
  2. they always investigate only when terrorists are killed but not when terrorist kill.
  3. they have twice hit the Nigeria soldiers' advance against Boko Haram on the diplomatic front but never in anyway halted, exposed or inhibited Boko Haram fighters' advance on truly innocent civilians.
  4. AI have simply forgotten how many Nigerians have been killed by Boko Haram militants dressed in Nigerian Army uniforms. They now claim that anybody in military uniform is a Nigerian soldier.
The last thing Nigeria needs is another "terrorist in Human Rights clothing" and while we condemn any dastardly act by any military personnel, we also want the Nigerian government to strengthen their (the Armed Forces) morale and arm against Boko Haram because the victory of the soldiers is a victory for Nigeria and the world.

See another reaction

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Now we have a Proof UNRWA has been trying to hide

New precedence

Many practices or actions considered normal in life today were actually very rare and possibly very unacceptable in times past. But a single action from one person, state or non-state entity could prove pivotal in societal acceptance of the such practices. While some are these changes very good and welcomed, others should not have been allowed to happen. Example of these kinds of changes brought upon the world by precedence cut across all spectra from the official abolition of slave trade to the now prevalent urban warfare.

The most recent conflict between Israel and Gaza which currently enjoying its first day of rest in the past 29 days has taken the lives of almost 2000 persons with about 6000 more injured. Quite a number of new patterns have emerged. Here are some of my observations:

A new twist to urban warfare is emerging. 
While Hamas was able to hold their nerves against a more superior IDF, they did it thanks a great number of civilian deaths and a world who was ready to put pressure on Israel and not Hamas.
Even though a similar thing is happening in Syria and now Libya, the world is implicitly setting a precedence that should a non-state entity put civilians at risk in a bid to achieve military survival, they will not be accountable instead the state entity-side of the conflict should be the one who really accounts for the war crime.

Knock on the roof.
Is it only me but I have never heard another army in any other conflict use this tactics in a bid to minimize civilian deaths. While it does not look like Israel will not be applauded, this is a precedence for other. Syria had the chance to do this and still does. The US has the chance to do this in Afghanistan and Ukraine also in their battle against pro-Russia separatists. The bottom line is that civilians should not be put in the line as much as possible.

Social Warfare
There seem to have been as much vicious fight on the electronic front as much as they was on the battle field.  The difference is that no one will die typing or chanting words on Facebook, Youtube, Viber, Twitter, Discus and the likes. However, it is clear that no other war seems so contested on the social media front like this one, not even Syrian war with about ten times more deaths.

Arab protest in western cities
From Washington DC to Sydney, New York to Paris, London to Toronto, anti-Israeli protests (sometimes violent) raged. I finally figured that the west is doing something they may regret with each passing Arabs conflicts - immigrating Arab refugees. While I might sound unsympathetic, the western character of the west is soon turning to an Arab character. A typical scenario is the violent protest in France where young Arab-looking youths were throwing stones as though it was a middle east scene. And you know what? The press tagged them as French.
Surprisingly, there was not a single televised protest in China or Russia. Does it tells us something?

Either side will try claiming victory but most nations that cheered or protested should note that what happens far away soon comes home and it will be hypocrisy to behave in a way they protested when it was Israel or Hamas fighting. We should mostly be judged tomorrow by the stands we took today.

Thursday, July 31, 2014

14 Questions that UNRWA should answer in the Israel-Gaza conflict.

I have watched and heard a lot of reports coming from both sides during the Israel-Gaza conflict. Sincerely, violations have taken place from both sides but the one-sided mounting death toll has given almost all sympathetic inclination to the suffering civilians in Gaza.
UNRWA has been releasing their own statements but more recently I am getting confused as to their role. Press releases, official statements and expressions have come from them and rightfully so because they have their staff on ground and we should expect first hand report from them. But a critical analysis of their questions and statements leaves me more questions than answers.
I have expected most broadcasting houses to ask tougher questions on reports, intentions, statements and facts but they appear diplomatic with UN officials and real with Israelis.
So below are 14 questions on my mind. Answers to them could help me (and many more around the world) picture the role of UNRWA in the Israeli-Gaza conflict that has taken at least 1400 lives with billion of dollars in damages.

UNRWA has release a number of statements insisting that the IDF is directly responsible for the numerous shelling incidents which include a UN school, hospitals, civilian and refugee facilities.
Question 1: Why hasn't UNRWA release any statement or report concerning the activities of Hamas within civilians population?

No journalist has so far reported on the activities of Hamas within Gaza except one - Italian journalist Gabriele Barbati. He did an easy-to-under report on the other side of Gaza. And of course, he did the reporting after leaving Gaza. 
Question 2: Why does the UNRWA complains and accusations only reveal Israeli shootings but not Hamas'?
Question 3: It would be nice to hear UNRWA reaction to that statement and if or how Hamas' censure might have effects on their reporting.
Question 4: Do UNRWA staff know about the fighting going on around them or do they just pick up the dead and wounded? UNRWA reports suggest IDF troops shooting at schools and homes and do not paint a combat scenario. Most of UNRWA reports agree with Hamas' submission of Israeli indiscriminate shooting at civilians population.

A UN official (Deputy secretary general in New York) confirmed to Wolf Blitzer in The Situation Room that they had experts in Gaza who unequivocal confirmed after their findings that Israel is responsible for the shells that killed the civilians in the UN School. He added  that experts were on ground in Gaza who investigated and confirmed from the shrapnel gotten from the site that Israel did the shooting.
Question 5: If UNRWA had such experts in Gaza, why weren't they consulted to inspect and report on the rockets found in UN schools on 3 different occasions? The world deserves to know the kind of rockets, their range and possibly who used the UN schools as rocket warehouse.

UN spokesman Chris Gunness, categorically said that the rockets were found in Abandoned UN schools.
Question 6: Can UNRWA tell the world how many such schools in Gaza are abandoned and which are occupied? The world deserves to know how many schools they are, how many are used as shelters, how many are abandoned and have been inspected.
Opinion: It seems to me that Chris is saying that Jihadist rockets are only in Abandoned schools and Israel only shoots at UN schools used for shelter purposes.
Question 7: Why are there abandoned UN facilities when Pierre Krahenbuhl's claimed just yesterday in AC360 that there are no more places to go or that they have been stretched in ability to shelter more displaced persons. Would it be that the abandoned schools are not conducive or have been occupied by some militants or something else? The world deserves to the truth on ground.
Question 8: Given that UNRWA turned over the discovered rockets to the local authorities. Who can they say today is responsible for the discovered rockets? Who has custody of them? And who is their spokesperson?

Pierre Krahenbuhl said in Anderson Coopers' AC360, that they had communicated to Israel the coordinates of their facilities 17 times prior to the school bombing.
Question 9: how many times was the same communicated to Hamas or Islamic Jihad?
Question 10: And what will he report as the adherence level of these militant groups to shoot near or across such coordinates?

From all indications and/or reports, UNRWA appears not to have made contacts to Hamas, Islamic Jihad or any other militant groups in Gaza. They only state they are in contacts with local authorities.
Opinion: I knows that since 2006/2007 Hamas has been the defacto ruling party in Gaza.
Question 11: who then are the local authorities that UNRWA have been working with? What is the name of their leader? Who is their spokesperson? To what party are they loyal (certainly not the PLO)?

Chris Gunness claimed on Al Jazeera in a telephone interview that nowhere is safe in Gaza because of the constant shelling of Israeli soldiers on civilian areas.
Reports: Israel reported 3 of its soldiers where killed in a civilian house that according to it, housed a tunnel shaft. Hamas confirmed that attack saying they lured the soldiers to the building and killed them with booby traps.
Question 12: why isn't UNRWA also reporting the presence of Hamas-planted booby traps in civilian houses which makes civilian population unsafe as well?
Opinion: I think this is the first hint at Hamas operational activity that the world shouldn't let slip. It only made news because it resulted in the death of the IDF soldiers. If it resulted in the death of the house occupants, I bet that the news houses and particularly UNRWA would have placed the blame on Israel as well.

Question 13: Does UNRWA have an operational center in Israel? We will also like to have a report on the Israeli side of things? They too should let the world and particularly the UN know about life under rockets and constant siren.

Question 14: What reaction does UNRWA have to the operational report the IDF released on Hamas shootings or rocket firing from areas close to schools, religious places and market?

Final Submission: UNRWA is the united nations relief and works agency. It is unprofessional to take sides in a conflict like this as this only stokes the hatred rather than soothe it.
Both sides of the conflict has committed questionable acts in the war so far but the reporting especially from UNRWA has been appalling. They leave us with more questions than answers in making us not believe that they have joined the war on a diplomatic front.
Whatever happens today is a precedent for tomorrow. Nations are watching and their perception will determine if UNRWA will be welcomed in other states in any time of conflicts.

Chris Gunness is the UNRWA Spokesperson in Gaza.
Pierre Krahenbuhl is the UNRWA Commissioner General 

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

The Isolated State

The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has entered its 23rd day and while the death toll is fast rising, it is becoming obvious that Israel is suffering not just the death of 53 soldiers but a diplomatic hit. Just recently the states of El Salvador, Peru and Chile recalled their envoy to protest the Hamas operation tagged "Protective Edge".

Despite claims of restraint from the Israeli Defense Force and strong diplomacy from the Israeli foreign ministry, a huge majority of the world's view about the conflict has not and most probably will not changed. They basically see Israel as the aggressor against unarmed civilians. Sadly Israel is becoming increasing isolated.

But wait, has Israel ever being not isolated? My answer is No. Any discussion on Israel in UN and her numerous agencies seems to be the best time for free speech. Everyone comes to the party and ignores calamities and gross human right violations in other parts of the world. Most ironic was a condemnation of Israel from the Syrian foreign ministry.

Before the state of Israel was born, Jews were isolated. After the birth in 1948, they have fought off existential threats without a single foreign boot on ground and even right now seem alone in the global fight against terrorism. When the former Egyptian President, Abdel Nasser stated the single objective of the Arab allied forces' invasion of the nascent state in 1948 as "driving them to the sea", all the UN offered was a statement. Notable however, It most not be forgotten that the most ardent Israel defender in the UN security council - US even distance itself from Israel on threats of oil embargo in 1973.

Today, Israel fights an enemy sworn to her destruction and while the world ignores the Hamas charter, they remember their children. The world looks at the other way in Syria, but reacts to every details in Gaza. The world claims Gaza is full of innocent civilians and ignores the 2600+ rockets into Israel. The world ignores the reports of rockets found in UN compounds but is upbeat when such compounds take a hit. The world sympathizes with pictures of Gaza children truly suffering but don't ask about the underground structures that exposes the children.

Certainly when it comes to Israel, expect the world to ask the wrong questions.

The only country whose existence is constantly threatened by fellow UN member states is truly isolated. When the chips are down, Israel is all Israel has and most begin to prepare for more to come. Whether it be destiny, by accident or some prophecies at work, Israel is not going off this hook so soon unless they accept a military defeat in which case would mean the end of the Jewish state.